Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

315 
ABPZ20 KNHC 010532
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Aug 31 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Karina, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja 
California Peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located well 
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. 

Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP95):
Satellite-derived wind data indicate that a tropical storm appears 
to be forming with an area of low pressure located about 500 miles 
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Advisories on this system 
will likely be initiated on early Tuesday.  The system is moving 
northwestward around 10 mph.  For more information, including storm 
warnings, please see the High Seas forecast issued by the National 
Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php 

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Hurricane Karina (EP1/EP112026)

...KARINA HOLDING STEADY AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 5:00 PM HST Mon Aug 31 the center of Karina was located near 17.8, -126.6 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Hurricane Karina Public Advisory Number 19

Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Aug 31 2026 000
WTPZ31 KNHC 010233
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Karina Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
500 PM HST Mon Aug 31 2026
 
...KARINA HOLDING STEADY AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 126.6W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Karina was located 
near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 126.6 West. Karina is moving 
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general 
motion is expected to continue through the forecast period. 
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity remain possible 
through tonight, followed by a gradual weakening trend on Tuesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the coast
of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next
couple of days and will likely spread northward to southern
California on Monday through midweek. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip
current risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Kelly

Hurricane Karina Forecast Advisory Number 19

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026 000
WTPZ21 KNHC 010232
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112026
0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 126.6W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  950 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  15SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  35SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 180SE 180SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 126.6W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 126.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.2N 128.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.5N 130.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.9N 132.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.3N 134.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.7N 136.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.0N 137.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  70SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.9N 141.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  70SW 100NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 22.3N 144.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  70SW 100NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 126.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER EVANS/KELLY

Hurricane Karina Forecast Discussion Number 19

Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Aug 31 2026 000
WTPZ41 KNHC 010234
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Karina Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
500 PM HST Mon Aug 31 2026
 
Latest visible and infrared satellite imagery show little change in 
Karina's structure over the last several hours. The 00z subjective 
Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB showed an increase to T5.5/102 
kt, while objective UW-CIMSS estimates range from 110 to 115 kt. 
Given the steady trend of Karina's appearance on satellite, the 
initial intensity estimate was held at 115 kt. 

Karina's initial motion is estimated to be 285/8 kt, the same as the 
previous advisory. The storm is expected to continue a 
west-northwestward motion through the forecast period, guided by 
mid-level ridging centered to the northwest over the north central 
Pacific. Other than a slight shift northward, little was changed in 
the track forecast, which reflects a blend of the previous advisory, 
HCCA, and GDMI.

The intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, which 
remains slightly higher than the model consensus. SHIPS guidance 
suggests that Karina will remain in a favorable environment of low 
vertical wind shear, and over warm SSTs for the next couple of days. 
Beyond Day 3, the system will begin to encounter cooler SSTs and a 
drier mid-level environment. Thus, the latest forecast continues to 
reflects a more steady weakening trend at that time, near the 
intensity consensus aids.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 17.8N 126.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 18.2N 128.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 18.5N 130.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 18.9N 132.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 19.3N 134.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  03/1200Z 19.7N 136.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 20.0N 137.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 20.9N 141.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 22.3N 144.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Kelly

Hurricane Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026 294 
FOPZ11 KNHC 010233
PWSEP1
                                                                    
HURRICANE KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112026               
0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 130W       34  X  37(37)   7(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
20N 130W       50  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
20N 130W       64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  56(57)  32(89)   1(90)   X(90)
20N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)  39(63)   1(64)   X(64)
20N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  29(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)  45(69)   1(70)
20N 140W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  32(37)   X(37)
20N 140W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   1(20)
 
25N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  13(19)
20N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
20N 145W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
25N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)
25N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
25N 145W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
25N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER EVANS/KELLY

Hurricane Karina Graphics

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2026 03:27:04 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 010537
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Edouard, located over the northern Gulf of America.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Edouard are issued under WMO 
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Edouard are issued under WMO 
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Summary for Tropical Storm Edouard (AT5/AL052026)

...EDOUARD EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST LATER TODAY... As of 1:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 the center of Edouard was located near 28.8, -92.5 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Edouard Public Advisory Number 3a

Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026 075 
WTNT35 KNHC 010535
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Edouard Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052026
100 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026
 
...EDOUARD EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHWEST
GULF COAST LATER TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 92.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None. 
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* High Island to the Cameron Louisiana
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar to the  Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Edouard was 
located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 
28.8 North, longitude 92.5 West. Edouard is moving toward the 
west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward to 
northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or two.  On the 
forecast track, the center of Edouard is predicted to reach the 
northwestern Gulf Coast within the warning area later today and move 
inland over southeast Texas tonight.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Strengthening is forecast and Edouard could approach 
hurricane strength before it reaches the northwest Gulf coast later 
today. Rapid weakening is expected after the center moves inland. 
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.
 
The minimum central pressure estimated by reconnaissance dropsonde 
data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Edouard can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area later this morning.  Hurricane conditions
are possible within the Hurricane Watch area later today.
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
High Island, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...3-5 ft
Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.
 
RAINFALL: Edouard is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with maximum totals up to 9 inches for parts of the Upper
Texas Coast inland through east-central Texas, with potential for 2
to 3 inches in far southwest Louisiana. This rainfall is likely to
produce flash flooding, especially in low-lying and urban areas.
River flooding may also be possible.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Edouard, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ero.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026 000
WTNT25 KNHC 010252
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052026
0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N  91.8W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N  91.8W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N  91.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 29.2N  93.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.1N  94.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.1N  95.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N  91.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 000
WTNT45 KNHC 010253
TCDAT5
 
Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052026
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026
 
Satellite and radar data showed an increase in banding near the 
center of the small tropical cyclone during the late afternoon and 
early evening hours.  Subjective and objective satellite intensity 
estimates increased to around 35-40 kt, and the initial wind speed 
was therefore increased to 35 kt on the 0000 UTC intermediate 
advisory.  Since that time, there has been a pause in the 
organization of the system, but curved bands are noted over the 
northern and western portions of the circulation. An Air Force 
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been sampling the system 
this evening reported earlier that the pressure has fallen to 
around 1004 mb, which is quite a bit lower than from this 
afternoon's mission, though the last fix was up a millibar or two.  
The flight-level winds do not appear to have responded to the 
pressure drop yet, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this 
advisory.
 
Edouard will be moving over very warm waters of the northwestern
Gulf within a low shear and a sufficiently moist environment
tonight and Tuesday morning.  As a result, nearly all of the
dynamical models indicate that the system will strengthen on its
approach to the coast, with most showing much of the strengthening
occuring in the final hours before landfall.  Given that the system
is small, a period of quick organization and strengthening seems
likely Tuesday morning.  The NHC forecast calls for intensification
during the next 12 hours and additional strengthening could result
in Edouard nearing hurricane strength when it approaches the
coast on Tuesday. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge
Warning has been issued for a portion of the northwest Gulf coast
with this advisory. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end
of the guidance envelope. Note that since the peak intensity is
expected to occur at landfall (between the 12 and 24 hour forecast
points), it is not possible to explicitly reflect Edouard's peak
intensity in the forecast points below.
 
Edouard is moving west-northwestward or 300/6 kt.  A low- to
mid-level ridge over the southeastern United States is expected to
steer the cyclone toward the west-northwest to northwest during the
next couple of days. This motion should bring the center onshore
along the northwestern Gulf Coast on Tuesday and inland over eastern
Texas Tuesday night.  The track guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an
update of the previous track.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Edouard is expected to strengthen and it could approach
hurricane strength before it reaches the northwest Gulf Coast on
Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected along the northwest
Gulf Coast with hurricane conditions possible from High Island to
Cameron.
 
2. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from High Island, Texas to
the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana where peak values of
3 to 5 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate
coast within the warning area.
 
3. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through 
east-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana Tuesday and 
Wednesday as Tropical Storm Edouard tracks inland. Flash flooding is 
likely across this region, especially in urban areas. River flooding 
may also be possible.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 28.6N  91.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 29.2N  93.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 30.1N  94.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  02/1200Z 31.1N  95.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Edouard Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026 000
FONT15 KNHC 010252
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052026               
0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
LAKE CHARLES   34  2  17(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
CAMERON LA     34 21  41(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
CAMERON LA     50  3  11(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
JASPER TX      34  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34  X  19(19)   4(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  2  33(35)   2(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X  10(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34  1  20(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN

Tropical Storm Edouard Graphics

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2026 03:21:28 GMT

Tropical Storm Edouard Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

Tropical Storm Edouard Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2026 02:54:05 GMT

Local Statement for Houston/Galveston, TX

Issued at 1020 PM CDT

Local Statement for Lake Charles, LA

Issued at 1031 PM CDT