359
FXHW60 PHFO 011340
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
340 AM HST Sun Nov 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air will move into the region today from west to east as the
southern end of a cold front brings northeast trade winds back to
the state. Moderate to breezy trades will be with us through the
coming week, along with the typical showers occurring mainly in
windward and mauka regions. A tropical storm may develop to our
southeast later this coming week (NHC has the chance right at
50%). If it forms, it is not expected to move toward Hawaii.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
A significant area of strong and often persistent showers that
moved over Kauai yesterday has diminished overnight. Flooding
occurred on Kauai, including water over Kuhio Highway near
Hanalei. As of 3:30 AM HST, radar shows an area of light to
moderate showers mainly south of Oahu, with additional scattered
showers extending from around Kona to near Upolu on the Big
Island.

A weak front will bring drier air to the state today, moving in
from west to east. The strongest part of the front will remain
well north of the area, but a change to northeast trade winds
will occur, and dewpoints will fall from the lower 70s in the mid
60s (at lower elevations). The Big Island will be the last island
to experience the drier air, and showers will continue there into
this afternoon. Additional light trade wind showers, mainly
windward and mauka, will continue even after the drier air reaches
the state.

A surface high will move east to a position around 500 miles to
our north Monday and generally remain there through Wednesday.
Later this week, this high will be replaced by a new high centered
to our northwest moving in from the west, keeping the trades
going. By this time, moisture will have increased somewhat, but
not nearly as high as what we have experienced the past few days.
Light trade wind showers will be with us, but heavy rain is not in
the forecast.

Final note, some model runs show a tropical system forming to our
southeast late this coming week. The models that do show this have
the potential system moving west and staying to our south. NHC
has a 50% chance of formation within 7 days. We will continue to
watch for any increase in model consistency, and of course for
guidance from NHC, through the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers continue to weaken as they push eastward.
Isolated MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible in any
passing showers this morning. For the rest of the day, expect a
gradual return to a breezy trade wind pattern.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration on Oahu and
windward areas of the Big Island due to low ceilings and reduced
visibility in showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A trough to the northwest of Kauai will sink southward across the
island chain today and tonight, with high pressure to the north,
behind the trough, causing fresh to strong northeast winds to
overspread the region. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect
for all coastal waters as a result. Waves will also exceed 10 feet
for exposed waters with the arrival of a north-northwest (330
degree) swell. This swell also brings high surf to north and west
facing shores of Kauai and Oahu, as well as north facing shores of
Maui and Molokai, for which a High Surf Advisory is in effect.
Moderate to locally strong northeast trades are expected to
continue through much of the week.

The arrival of a moderate, long-period northwest swell will bring surf
quickly building to advisory levels along north- and west-facing
shores this morning. The swell peaks later today before beginning a
decline on Monday. However, advisory level surf is expected to linger
through at least Monday morning before falling to more moderate levels
by Monday evening. Another advisory level northwest swell is possible
Thursday into Friday, and moderate to large surf action appears to
continue into the weekend.

The current moderate, medium period south swell will hold today near
seasonal average before declining on Monday. South shore surf will
be tiny through much of the week with little southerly background
energy reaching the islands. East-facing shores will see an increase
in trade wind swell as northeast winds return today. Surf along east-
facing shores will increase through Monday night and conditions will
stay choppy as trades sustain through much of the week. A north-
northeast trade wind swell (around 30 degrees) this week will
reach moderate levels, but remains short-period, so the threat of
harbor surges appears less likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Recent wet weather has lowered fire concern due to wet fuels.
Trades with drier air will move into the region today, and wind
speeds will increase and remain elevated through at least
Wednesday. The temperature inversion from Maui to the Big Island
was around 9000 feet this morning and is expected to lower to
around 7000 feet by Monday.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Kauai East-Kauai
North-Kauai Southwest-Koolau Windward-Maui Central Valley North-
Maui Windward West-Molokai North-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu
North Shore-Waianae Coast-Windward Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai
Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward
Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Parker
AVIATION...PECHACEK
MARINE...Quesada

NWS HFO Office Area Forecast Discussion